132 Nie będzie wojny 22.06.2019

132 Nie będzie wojny 22.06.2019

amerykańsko –irańskiej; jeśli zaś będzie, to nieprędko; oczywiście jeśli Amerykanie zachowają się rozsądnie. Stała się bowiem rzecz straszna, dla Amerykanów, mianowicie zestrzelenie tego drona Global Hawk’a. Trump cofnął się w ostatniej /ponoć/ chwili, zrozumiał bowiem on, i zapewne jego doradcy, że to podstęp…że ten Iran, to ma być dla Ameryki „nowy Wietnam”…że ta wojna z dzikimi Arabami, to tak naprawdę, będzie wojną między Ameryką a koalicją chińsko- rosyjską, na terenie 50 mln. fanatyków, amatorów na dziewice w ilości 72 ponoć, a Ameryki nienawidzących szczerze.

Nie trzeba być specjalnie domyślnym, by wiedzieć o roli Szanghajskiej Organizacji Współpracy /czytaj Wojskowej/ SOW, której Iran jest obserwatorem .

Lecieli Amerykanie sobie spokojnie, zapewne na wysokości 15 000 m/poza zasięgiem artylerii przeciwlotniczej/, bezpieczni od rakiet przeciwlotniczych z uwagi na system „stealth”…aż tu nagle wszystko się posypało.

Trudno znaleźć ścisłe informacje na temat tego drona, ale przekonany jestem, że był w systemie „stealth”. Jeśli tak się wyposaża samoloty warte 80 mln USD, sądzę, że tym bardziej te warte dwa razy więcej.

Gdyby ten dron został zestrzelony przez myśliwiec, do tego w dzień, byłaby mała szkoda; ale to się stało rakietą i do tego w nocy…A to znaczy, że Iran dysponuje bronią własną, oraz ruskimi S-300, wobec których, wartość całej amerykańskiej potęgi broni klasycznej, opartej na systemie „stealth”, została podważona.

W tych warunkach wdawać się w wojnę, to samobójstwo, też ekonomiczne, choćby z uwagi na przyszłą ofertę sprzedaży samolotów F 35 licznym państwom. Jeden strącony taką rakietą F 35 niweczyłby cały ten interes; no może nie cały…Solidaruchy polskie by go kupiły na pewno; ale budować na nich przyszłość amerykańskiego przemysłu zbrojeniowego?…

Dodatkowo, zajście z dronem, koreluje z aferę, gdzie Huti jemeńccy , ponoć dysponujący irańską bronią, ostrzelali rakietą saudyjskie instalacje odsalania wody morskiej, chronione przez system Patriot i je uszkodzili – system zawiódł.

Rosjanie od dawna twierdzą, że ich systemy przeciwlotnicze S-y widzą jednostki latające w systemie „stealth”, niedawno zaś Chińczycy oświadczyli, że ich system przeciwlotniczy, oparty na falach 1 metra, widzi je także.

Mnie nie bardzo chce się wierzyć, że Irańczycy, przy wszystkich ograniczeniach im narzuconych paktem antyatomowym, byli w stanie wyprodukować broń ofensywną /pokonanie Patriot/, i defensywną /zestrzelenie drona/.

W tych warunkach Amerykanom pozostałby ataki cybernetyczne oraz  rakietami Tomahawk. Jednak; jeżeli na prawdzie polega informacja, że rosyjski okręt, u wybrzeży Syrii, bronią radioelektroniczną spowodował upadek kilku tych pocisków do morza, rzecz staje się niepewna, a chybiona, kompromitująca.

Jeśli do tego dodać zajście na Morzu Czarnym, z amerykańskim niszczycielem, w którym przelatujący rosyjski samolot ponoć zniszczył elektronikę, wniosek jest prosty:

Kochani Amerykanie; Wasze zasługi dla przywracania humanitarnych stosunków na świecie są niepodważalne i ogólnie doceniane, nie rozmieniajcie ich na drobne nadużyciem Waszej potęgi; jej używanie musi być poprzedzone głębszym namysłem i obiektywnym rozeznaniem spornych okoliczności.

Iran natomiast winien przestać gadać o tym „zniszczeniu Izraela”, Żydki maja prawo mieć własne państwo, ale Ameryka musi przestać ślepo wspierać wszystkie ich pragnienia; wtedy jakiś kompromis ich i Arabów stanie się realny i już nie trzeba będzie nikogo atakować i zapewne być atakowanym…

Adam Czochralski 22.06.2019

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